Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Obama's Taxing Trap

As we Conservatives count down the days to the November elections, and the replacement of the current House Speaker and Senate Majority leader, there is a trap that the Republicans must be careful to avoid: I believe that Barack Obama is set to push through massive tax increases and blame the Republicans for them.

In recent weeks, a number of international events has highlighted the danger of deficit spending. First, Obama went to the G20 to ask the member nations to spend more money. Instead of going along with his worthless idea, they repudiated him and pledged deficit reduction. Additionally, the IMF on July 8 issued a call for America to focus on deficit reduction. And not all of the spirited calls for deficit reduction originate from outside our borders: Recent polling puts deficit spending as the number 1 or number 2 concern (depending on the specific poll) for Americans. And, the Tea party movement has long criticized the out-of-control deficit spending.
Therein lies the trap: Obama's sheep in Congress have added new spending like drunken sailors, and now that Obama has the spending in-hand, he's not going to give it up. Come November, (when, I predict, the GOP reclaims the House of Representatives), Obama will demand that Republicans make good on their promise of "deficit reduction" (which I still haven't heard Republicans commit to), and raise taxes. Of course, Obama will not remotely consider any more than token spending cuts to accomplish deficit reduction. If the Republicans are to avoid the trap, they need to control the debate before we ever reach the election. Republicans need to focus on policies that will promote growth in the economy, and instead of focusing on deficit reduction, they need to focus the debate on spending reduction.

Monday, July 12, 2010

November Outcome: New Congressional Leadership

In some previous posts, I've hinted about my thoughts regarding the outcome of the November elections. I think it's time that I formalize my predictions. Put succinctly, I think there is a very good chance that both chambers of Congress will have new leadership. But not the way you're thinking...

I am firmly convinced that we will have a new House Speaker, as the Republicans will re-take the House and fire Nanci Pelosi. (Moreover, I think the majority will be fairly significant.) I realize this is an ambitious prediction, as this means massive losses for the Democrats. But, I think current polling supports my prediction. (Time will tell, though...)

My prediction for the change in Senate leadership is far less ambitious. I do not foresee the GOP retaking the Senate. (As much as I would like to see that happen.) I think the election outcome will put the balance at 53-47 (advantage Democrats). However, Harry Reid will no longer be the majority leader, as I predict that Sharon Angle will defeat him in November. Polling shows a significant disapproval for Reid in Nevada, and the last I saw, Angle had a 7-point edge over Reid. Moreover, Obama's attempt for Reid did nothing to move his poll numbers in either direction.

Time is the enemy of all election predictions, as a lot can happen in a short time. However, I think it's time to go on-record with my election predictions. Time will tell if I am right.