November Outcome: New Congressional Leadership

In some previous posts, I've hinted about my thoughts regarding the outcome of the November elections. I think it's time that I formalize my predictions. Put succinctly, I think there is a very good chance that both chambers of Congress will have new leadership. But not the way you're thinking...

I am firmly convinced that we will have a new House Speaker, as the Republicans will re-take the House and fire Nanci Pelosi. (Moreover, I think the majority will be fairly significant.) I realize this is an ambitious prediction, as this means massive losses for the Democrats. But, I think current polling supports my prediction. (Time will tell, though...)

My prediction for the change in Senate leadership is far less ambitious. I do not foresee the GOP retaking the Senate. (As much as I would like to see that happen.) I think the election outcome will put the balance at 53-47 (advantage Democrats). However, Harry Reid will no longer be the majority leader, as I predict that Sharon Angle will defeat him in November. Polling shows a significant disapproval for Reid in Nevada, and the last I saw, Angle had a 7-point edge over Reid. Moreover, Obama's attempt for Reid did nothing to move his poll numbers in either direction.

Time is the enemy of all election predictions, as a lot can happen in a short time. However, I think it's time to go on-record with my election predictions. Time will tell if I am right.